Are dollar stores magnets for violent crime?
Eun Jin Shin (Sungkyunkwan University)
Alexpankratz, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons
In recent years, the United States has experienced a significant rise in economic inequality, a trend that has coincided with the rapid expansion of dollar stores, especially in the aftermath of the Great Recession. These establishments are often lauded as beacons of affordability, providing essential goods to financially disadvantaged communities. However, recent media reports and community demonstrations have cast a shadow on their presence. They highlight several concerning aspects, one of which is an alleged escalation in violent crimes in their vicinity.
The question arises: why might dollar stores become magnets for violent crime? Various theories offer explanations. The routine activity theory, for instance, posits that these stores inadvertently create a high-risk environment by bringing together motivated offenders, vulnerable targets, and a significant lack of effective security measures. Specifically, the limited security measures in dollar stores and the higher likelihood of dollar store customers carrying cash seem to make these patrons more vulnerable to criminal activities. Additionally, the aesthetic and upkeep of these stores might contribute to an atmosphere of neighborhood disorder, potentially reinforcing the “broken windows theory”: the notion that visible signs of neglect can foster an environment conducive to crime.
Yet, while existing theories paint a plausible picture, the hard, empirical evidence examining the impact of dollar stores on local crime rates remains conspicuously thin on the ground. This gap in our understanding is what my research sets out to address. Much of the existing research has instead focused on the implications of dollar stores for community health, particularly concerning access to nutritious food options. But what about their social footprint? How do they mold the fabric of our neighborhoods in terms of safety and crime?
In my investigation, I dove into four critical questions that get to the heart of this issue. First, I examined the impact of dollar stores on overall violent crime and their subtypes in nearby areas. Next, I examined the variability of these effects across different types of crime locations in addition to assessing whether the opening or closing of dollar stores leads to a spatial displacement of crime. The third aspect of my study involved a dynamic analysis, observing how the influence of dollar store openings on violent crime evolves over time. Last, I explored how these effects fluctuate based on the contextual nuances of their locations. This multifaceted approach aims to provide a holistic understanding of the role dollar stores play in shaping local crime dynamics.
To underpin this investigation, I used data from two key sources: the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) retailers’ database and police-reported crime incident data. These datasets offer details on the geographic locations and approximate opening and closing dates of dollar stores, as well as the locations and timings of violent crime incidents. Methodologically, I employed a difference-in-differences method to establish causality, leveraging the spatial and temporal variations in dollar store activities. Additionally, to gain deeper insights into the locational context’s role, I applied a causal random forest approach, which has seen increasing use in social science research for uncovering heterogeneous treatment effects.
The findings illuminate a substantial surge in violent crimes, with a particular emphasis on robberies, in nearby areas compared to control areas following the opening of dollar stores. No signs of spatial crime displacement emerged from the analysis. Furthermore, after the closure of these dollar stores, violent crime levels in adjacent areas revert to those observed in the pre-store opening period, irrespective of the type of crime under scrutiny. Another pivotal finding is that post-opening, not only do violent crime levels spike within the store premises, but they also spill over onto neighboring streets and sidewalks. This observation implies that customers who visit dollar stores on foot are highly susceptible to violent crimes, particularly robberies.
I also found that the impact of dollar store openings on violent crime is dynamic, contingent upon both time and the surrounding environment. The effect tends to magnify over time, notably a few years after the store’s opening. Furthermore, lower-middle-income areas witness a more pronounced uptick in total violent crimes and robberies than their higher-income counterparts following the opening of a dollar store.
These findings come at a time when many local governments are implementing measures to curb the proliferation of dollar stores. One common approach is the adoption of a ‘dispersal standard,’ which requires maintaining a minimum distance between existing dollar stores and any new establishments. However, this method has often sparked tensions between local authorities and the owners of dollar stores, particularly large chains, such as Dollar General. In some instances, it has even escalated to legal battles, burdening both businesses and local governments with significant costs. In response to these challenges, my research proposes a different approach: mandating dollar stores to implement advanced security measures. A similar approach has been taken in other contexts, as evidenced by the Atlanta City Council's recent ordinance requiring all gas stations in the Atlanta, Georgia area to install and maintain high-quality video surveillance systems. This approach directly addresses safety concerns and could potentially curb dollar stores’ growth by increasing their operational costs. Importantly, it does so without infringing on the fundamental right to conduct business in a specific location.
My research also highlights the need to prioritize security initiatives for dollar stores in lower-middle-income areas, especially where retail outlets are densely clustered. It is vital not only to implement these initiatives but also to maintain them to ensure their continued effectiveness. Policymakers must recognize that the impact of dollar stores on crime extends beyond their walls, thus necessitating comprehensive strategies that cover both the stores and their surrounding streets and sidewalks.